الأزمة المصرفية والمودِعون
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Decoding the IMF
Between the lines of the September 2026 mission to Beirut
A line-by-line reading of the IMF’s September 2026 statement on Lebanon. The paper translates diplomatic phrasing — “a measure of stability”, “the hierarchy of claims”, unimplemented fiscal measures — into financial reality, and argues that the statement sets legal and fiscal prerequisites for a programme rather than a recovery strategy, leaving reconstruction finance and the exchange-rate regime unaddressed.
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From financial mirage to forensics
How mismanagement, delay and Circular 331 cost Lebanese depositors their savings
Launched in 2014 as a $400 million central-bank-backed push into venture capital, Circular 331 served from the outset as engineered liquidity and a channel for insiders: BDL absorbed 75% of losses and banks faced no downside. Reading BDL’s 2026 statement on disclosure and dollar repayment as a belated reaction, the paper traces how mismanagement and regulatory delay cost depositors their savings.
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Banks versus depositors
The State Council enters the arena
This issue analyses the draft bank reorganisation law after the State Council annulled the May 2022 decision to write off US$60 billion of central bank foreign-currency obligations to banks. It examines the banks' claim that the state owes the central bank about US$16.3 billion, the split into qualified and non-qualified deposits, and the IMF stance, concluding that the bill ignores central bank governance and burdens depositors.
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The banks’ association and the depositors: the real deal
This second part on bank restructuring examines the banks' association's campaign against the draft reform law, including its strike after a court ruling against Fransabank. The report expects deadlock for at least two more years, citing a caretaker government, the presidential vacancy and no parliamentary consensus. It estimates losses at about US$75 billion, or 400% of GDP, deems full restitution of deposits unfeasible, and reviews depositor associations' divergent positions.
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Lebanese banks: the origins of the failure
This issue examines the origins of the banking collapse and competing restructuring proposals. It describes an overbanked sector of over 60 banks, heavily dollarised and mismatched, with government securities and central bank placements reaching 66.6% of assets by end-2017 against loans of 29.4%. The report contrasts the IMF's approach, prioritising debt restructuring and loss recognition, with the banks' association plan to preserve shareholder capital, identifying depositors as the principal victims.
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De-risking
Three types of de-risking and their consequences for Lebanon
This issue analyses whether de-risking threatens Lebanon's access to global finance as it shifts to a cash economy. It distinguishes de-banking, loss of correspondent banking relationships and withdrawal of money transfer operators, with AML/CFT compliance as the main driver. Noting remittances steady at US$5–7 billion a year and unverified implementation of Circular 154 on 3% correspondent deposits, it identifies losing transfer operators as the gravest risk.
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The Lebanese insurance sector
Characteristics of the sector and its exposure to the crisis
This issue examines insurance as a neglected pillar of Lebanon's financial system. With US$1.65 billion in premiums and penetration of 3.5% of GDP in 2019, first in the Arab world, the sector is fragmented across 51 companies, none listed. The report shows that pre-2022 policies compensated in 'Lollars' lost 87% of their value, notes that 62% of the population lacks adequate health cover, and calls for ratings and disclosure.
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Effects of the absence of banking services
A positive paradigm change
This issue examines the effects of absent banking services: a cash economy, a complete credit crunch and halted trade finance, with most of the 65 banks technically insolvent. Expecting banks to remain ineffective for five to ten years, it recommends independent audits, shareholder recapitalisation, new institutional investors and governance rules on politically exposed shareholders, alongside alternative vehicles: factoring, equity recapitalisation, hospitality, renewable energy and education funds.
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The capital control law
The recovery plan versus the IMF staff-level agreement
This issue assesses the draft Capital Control Law and the April 2022 recovery plan. It argues the law comes too late, effectively amnesties banks and grants an unaccountable committee arbitrary powers, noting that capital controls rank last among IMF priorities. It reviews the plan's US$60 billion write-off of central bank liabilities, a bail-in of deposits above US$100,000, a VAT rise from 11% to 15%, and an external central bank audit.
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