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Yemen scores lowest of the sixteen countries on the social pillar and second-lowest overall. Real GDP has contracted every year since 2014, for a cumulative loss of 27%. Income per head is about USD 470, the lowest in the Arab world, and the country ranks 184th of 193 on human development. Oil exports have been blocked since October 2022, the recognised government's revenue fell to 5.6% of GDP in 2025, public debt exceeds 100% of GDP and is in arrears, and more than 18 million people, about half the population, are in IPC Phase 3 or worse.
The paper sets Yemen's collapse apart from that of other off-scale states. Two half-states share one country, each with its own central bank, currency, banking system and fiscal authority; the Aden rial fell to 2,905 to the dollar in 2025 while the Sana'a rial is held at 535 by control. The Aden government spends only what Saudi support provides, and the 2025 humanitarian appeal was just 29% funded. Remittances of about USD 2 bn, a quarter of GDP, are the real balance of payments. Female labour-force participation of about 6% is the lowest measured anywhere.
As with Sudan, a settlement comes first. The difference is the next step: economic reunification under one central bank, one currency and one revenue authority before political reunification, with resumed oil exports as the shared dividend.
Key findings
- Oil terminals and Hodeidah would reopen under joint or neutral administration, restarting oil from Marib, Shabwa and Hadramawt and LNG from Balhaf as the only revenue able to fund a state within a year.
- Revenue would rise from 5.6% to 12% of GDP through oil, customs at unified ports, and excises collected once rather than twice.
- The two rials would merge at a market rate under one independent central bank with a ceiling on advances, after the Aden central bank's net claims on government rose 22% in 2025.
- Lifting the mutual bans on banks and supervising exchange houses would turn USD 2 bn of annual remittances into deposits and credit.
- External debt would be treated through the Paris Club once a unified authority exists, with Saudi and Gulf claims converted to grants or long-term development finance.
- Targets for years three to five include halving food insecurity, reserves of two months and female participation above 10%.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.