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The road map calls Tunisia the anomaly of the series. Its economic structure is Category 1: manufactures are above 70% of exports, revenue is 26% of GDP, private credit is 60% of GDP, female participation is 28% and poverty is 16%. Its balance sheet is Category 2 and its financing model is Category 3. There has been no international market issuance since 2019 and the IMF programme has been stalled since 2023. Direct central-bank financing of the Treasury was USD 2.3 bn in 2025, and an exceptional USD 3.7 bn was requested for 2026, the largest monetisation relative to GDP of any country in the series not at war.
The paper acknowledges that the model has worked so far. Reserves held at 92–107 days of imports, the dinar stayed stable, inflation fell to 5.1% and remittances rose to 6% of GDP. The cost appears in the banks. Their exposure to the sovereign grew 32% in a year, government paper provides 45% of their revenue, and state banks carry non-performing loans above 20%. Youth unemployment near 38% and graduate unemployment near 25% are driving emigration. The paper describes this as a Lebanese trajectory at a Tunisian pace.
Because the economy needs little redesign, the road map is short. It aims to reopen one external channel, either the market or an official lender, and to replace central-bank financing with a fiscal adjustment small enough to survive politically.
Key findings
- Exceptional central-bank financing is capped at 1% of GDP in 2027 and brought to zero by 2028, with the 2016 law's ban on monetary financing restored once the tranches are repaid.
- The deficit is to fall from 6.1% to below 3% of GDP, mainly through attrition in a wage bill of about 15% of GDP and indexed energy subsidies with cash compensation.
- One disclosed external anchor is required: either a smaller, front-loaded IMF arrangement designed in Tunisia or a Gulf–Afreximbank–EU consortium with a published macro framework.
- An asset-quality review of the state banks and phased limits on sovereign exposure are meant to cut government paper from 45% to under 30% of bank revenue.
- Years 3–5 target debt below 75% of GDP and a first external issue at under 9%, returning Tunisia to the lower edge of Category 1 that it held until 2020.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.