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The road map places Sudan off the scale on every measure. Real GDP fell 29% in 2023 and 14% in 2024, a cumulative contraction of about 40%. Inflation reached 170% in 2024 and 111% in 2025. External debt of USD 45 bn equals 128% of GDP and has been in arrears for four decades, and the 2021 HIPC decision point was never followed by completion. Famine has been confirmed in El Fasher and Kadugli, 19–21 million people are in IPC Phase 3 or worse, and a third of the population is displaced. Thirteen constructs score zero.
The paper distinguishes Sudan's collapse from a balance-sheet crisis: it is a territorial event that destroyed the balance sheet as a by-product, with the armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces each claiming to govern. What remains is gold, a record 53 tonnes in 2025, and the monetisation of a budget whose revenue is about 8% of GDP; humanitarian aid, not the state, is the largest external resource.
The road map therefore cannot start with economics. It is written as a programme for the day after a settlement: humanitarian stabilisation, HIPC completion, a new currency, and then the ordinary work of a post-conflict Category 3 sovereign, the position Somalia reached in 2023.
Key findings
- The precondition is a ceasefire and one transitional authority controlling the productive core of the Nile valley, the Port Sudan corridor and Gezira, together with a published register of military-owned enterprises and their gold revenues.
- Gold would move into a single export channel through the central bank with a royalty regime, while Gezira and the gum arabic, sesame and livestock chains are restored to bring gold below 50% of exports.
- Revenue would rise from 8% toward 12% of GDP through Port Sudan customs, gold royalties and excises, and salary arrears would be paid through a donor trust rather than the printing press.
- A Staff-Monitored Programme would serve as the bridge to HIPC completion, with commercial arrears handled through a buy-back facility.
- A new unified pound, an independent central bank with a hard ceiling on advances, and mobile-first payment rails would aim to bring inflation below 20%.
- The paper treats a strategic grain reserve and housing and land titling for some 10 million returning displaced people as the first balance-sheet items of the new state.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.