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The compendium covers Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Mauritania, the strongest sub-region in the series, some twenty points above any other on the composite and leading on every pillar. It is also the only sub-region where the categories form a gradient rather than a cliff: Morocco leads at 73.2, Libya trails at 41.4 and the other four sit between 53.8 and 59.2.
The paper organises the six by financing model. Morocco and Egypt borrow in the market; Algeria and Libya borrow nothing abroad and finance deficits from reserves and central-bank advances; Mauritania executes an IMF arrangement while Tunisia has replaced its stalled programme with central-bank financing. Algeria, Tunisia and Mauritania all exceed the Category 1 threshold on the additive score but are held at Category 2 because none has a traded curve or rating. The common weakness is social: low poverty and inequality coexist with high youth unemployment and the exclusion of educated women from work.
Key findings
- Morocco, at 73.2, is the only Category 1 sovereign in the sub-region and needs two notches for investment grade at all agencies.
- Egypt's interest bill absorbs 60% of revenue, and its road map lifts revenue from 15–16% to 20% of GDP by taxing state and military enterprises.
- Libya holds USD 80 bn of reserves and no external debt but is capped at Category 3 because two governments run two budgets from one central bank.
- Algeria finances a deficit of 10–12% of GDP through the central bank with a 77% parallel-market premium, and its road map ends with a first sukuk and then a rating.
- Female labour-force participation of 15–28% across the six is identified as the construct with the highest growth pay-off in every road map.
- Youth unemployment of 37% in Morocco preceded the 2025 protests, which came four days after the country reached the investment-grade frontier.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.