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The road map places Morocco at the top of Category 1. Every fiscal and external measure reads Category 1 or better. Debt is 67% of GDP and falling, the deficit was cut to 3.5% in 2025, interest takes about a tenth of revenue, and reserves of USD 47 bn cover almost six months of imports. Inflation is about 1%, Eurobonds are issued regularly at 5–6%, and an IMF Flexible Credit Line remains undrawn. An automotive and phosphate export platform has made Morocco Africa's only investment-grade Eurobond issuer.
The paper argues that the scale does not capture what the Gen Z 212 protests of autumn 2025 exposed. Unemployment is 13% and youth unemployment 37%, only 193,000 net jobs were created in a year, female participation is 15% and falling, and six consecutive drought years have increased dependence on imported cereals. The sovereign balance sheet is the best in the series, but the social balance sheet is mid-table. Diversification is real but concentrated, with automotive at about 30% of exports and phosphates at 18%. World Cup 2030 spending, estimated at 18% of GDP cumulatively, competes with water investment for the same capital budget.
The road map therefore focuses on the constructs ratings do not measure, in a set order: jobs, water and women. It holds that the last two notches to full investment grade will follow if those are addressed.
Key findings
- A fiscal rule with a debt anchor and a primary-balance target is to be legislated, with World Cup capital spending ring-fenced in a PPP-heavy envelope that has a sunset.
- Aerospace and green hydrogen/ammonia are to become third and fourth export pillars, so that no single product exceeds 20% of exports.
- Water becomes the first infrastructure priority, with desalination capacity of 1.7 bn m³ by 2030, conversion to drip irrigation and cereal-import planning indexed to rainfall.
- An employment guarantee for first jobs, childcare infrastructure and regional budgets tied to targets aim to cut youth unemployment from 37% to below 25% and lift female participation toward 25%.
- The banking target is to reduce non-performing loans from 8.5% to below 6% through a secondary NPL market and a resolution framework.
- Years 3–5 aim for debt below 60% of GDP and a third export pillar above 10% of exports, giving full investment grade with a social base to sustain it.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.