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The compendium covers the sub-region that spans the scale most completely. Jordan sits in Category 1, Iraq is a Category 2 sovereign held up by oil and held down by its state, and Lebanon and Syria are both off the scale — Lebanon as an intact administration with a destroyed balance sheet, Syria as a destroyed state with a comparatively light one. All four have been struck by the regional war since February 2026.
The analysis finds that the separation is driven by the machinery of payment rather than by governance alone. Iraq and Lebanon are within six percentiles on governance, yet Iraq scores 15.2 of 27 on the balance-sheet pillar against Lebanon's 1.4. Jordan shows the reverse tension: Category 1 governance and balance sheet, a Category 2 fiscal pillar with debt near 90% of GDP, and a social pillar in Category 3 territory. The compendium concludes that a road map moving only the first four pillars would produce sovereigns that pay and populations that leave.
Key findings
- Composites are 62.8 for Jordan, 49.2 for Iraq, 15.6 for Lebanon and 15.2 for Syria, ranking third, tenth, thirteenth and fourteenth of sixteen.
- The 33.6-point gap between Iraq and Lebanon is larger than the total score of either country below it.
- Lebanon's Eurobonds of USD 42 bn and deposit gap of USD 80–83 bn consolidate to about 3.5 times GDP, and its road map requires a single restructuring perimeter with depositor priority and an IMF programme.
- Iraq's oil supplies 91% of exports, and its road map targets a cut in the break-even oil price from USD 85 to 65 alongside a fiscal rule and a central-bank law.
- Female labour-force participation of 11–22% across the four is the construct on which the sub-region's Category 1 and off-scale members differ least.
- Syria's next stop is Category 3 as a new borrower, through statistics, central-bank and banking laws under an IMF Staff-Monitored Programme.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.