Uploaded on
The road map places Jordan inside Category 1, the only country in the series to sit there on the framework's own terms. Governance percentiles are around the 50s and 60s and inflation is under 3% behind a dollar peg dating from 1995. Reserves of USD 26–27 bn cover about eight months of imports, non-performing loans are 5–6% and private credit is 85% of GDP. An IMF programme passed its fifth review in June 2026 despite the regional war.
The paper describes a Category 1 credit carrying Category 3 employment. Public debt of about 91% of GDP has been flat for five years and the deficit including grants runs at 5–6%. Interest takes around 18% of revenue, and growth of 2.5–2.9% barely exceeds population growth. Unemployment is 21.4%, about 45% for young people, and female participation is 14.4%. The 2026 war tested the anchors and they held: Aqaba cargo rose 16% and remittances rose 14% while tourism collapsed. But the anchors (the peg, the IMF, US assistance and Gulf support) do not create jobs. Losses at NEPCO and the water utilities are fiscal risks that sit outside the headline deficit.
The road map is therefore a growth-and-jobs programme paid for by a fiscal position that finally has to move. Its target is the upper tier of Category 1.
Key findings
- The arithmetic is set out directly: a 5% deficit with 2.7% growth holds debt at 90% indefinitely, so Jordan needs either a 2% primary surplus or 4% growth.
- Revenue is to rise from 25% to 27% of GDP by widening the income-tax base rather than raising rates, alongside cost-reflective utility tariffs with lifeline protection.
- NEPCO, the Water Authority and other off-budget entities are to be brought into the general-government perimeter with consolidated accounts.
- A donor-funded national employment compact (first-job wage subsidies, incentives for female employment, work permits for refugees in tradable sectors) treats unemployment as the state's largest contingent liability.
- Energy diversification targets 50% of generation from domestic renewables, plus the USD 3–4 bn Aqaba–Amman desalination PPP, after Israeli gas deliveries stopped in 2026.
- Year 1: a successor IMF arrangement and the Aqaba corridor programme. Years 3–5: debt below 80%, a deficit under 3% and growth of 4%, returning Jordan to the BB/BB+ range.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.