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The compendium covers Djibouti, Comoros, Somalia and Sudan. Its distribution is bimodal: the two small states, Comoros at 57.0 and Djibouti at 52.2, are graded as sovereigns in Category 2; Somalia at 35.2 is Category 3 by the state-capacity cap; and Sudan, at 6.4, is the lowest score in the series.
The Horn is presented as the framework's demonstration that a low debt ratio is not a strong balance sheet. The sub-region's fiscal pillar averages 11.4 of 22, stronger than its governance or social pillars, because debt was cleared by HIPC relief or never extended. The caps decide every grade: without them Comoros would be Category 1 and Somalia Category 2. The paper concludes that the decisive actions are institutional rather than fiscal — a federal compact, a transitional authority, a civil-service census, a debt-management office — and that food security comes before all of them.
Key findings
- Sudan has confirmed famine in El Fasher and Kadugli, with 19–21 million people, about 45% of the population, in IPC Phase 3 or worse.
- Somalia's HIPC completion in December 2023 cleared USD 4.5 bn, yet domestic revenue remains at 3–4% of GDP and the road map targets 8%.
- Djibouti combines 6% growth and a current-account surplus with China Eximbank arrears, 90% dependence on Ethiopian port traffic and youth unemployment above 60%.
- Comoros carries debt of 33% of GDP and eight months of reserves but domestic revenue of only 11–12% of GDP and government effectiveness in the 8th percentile.
- Poverty rates of 59% in Sudan, 55% in Somalia, 40% in Comoros and 35% in Djibouti are the highest in the series after Yemen and Syria.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.