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The compendium examines the Arabian Peninsula's two sovereigns below investment grade, which sit at opposite ends of the series. Bahrain scores 63.0 and Yemen 7.2, a 56-point range unmatched in any other sub-region, so the sub-regional average of 35.1 describes neither country.
Bahrain would be Category 1 on its additive score but is capped at Category 2 by a fiscal pillar of 6.0 of 22, the lowest of any non-collapsed sovereign in the series. Its governance, income, external balance, banking and social readings are Category 1 or better; what keeps it above Category 3 is the GCC guarantee and a market that reopened in June 2026. Yemen scores zero on thirteen of twenty-one constructs, with two central banks, two currencies and blocked oil exports. The paper concludes that wealth does not separate the two — Saudi Arabia supports both — but whether there is a state to support.
Key findings
- Bahrain's public debt of 148% of GDP is rising towards 157%, with interest absorbing a third of revenue and deficits above 10% for three years.
- Bahrain's social pillar of 12.0 of 15 is the highest in the series, while Yemen's 0.0 is the lowest.
- Bahrain's road map rests on a statutory fiscal rule with a 4–5% primary-surplus target and a revenue package lifting non-oil revenue from 9% to 14% of GDP.
- More than 18 million Yemenis, about half the population, are food-insecure at IPC Phase 3 or worse, and female labour-force participation is roughly 6%.
- Yemen's road map, conditional on a settlement, puts economic reunification — one central bank, one currency, one revenue authority — ahead of political reunification.
Summary of the paper; the full analysis is in the PDF.